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Eight simple rules for betting baseball
By Brian Covert
Betting baseball is tough.
W-L, ERA, WHIP, OBP, OPS – there`s enough numbers in the sport to make Stephen Hawking`s head spin. Throw in the fact you have to keep your focus for a 162-game schedule and the task seems as tough as putting a man on the moon.
But Neil Armstrong managed that 37 years ago, so it stands to reason that we can get a hold on this baseball thing. With that in mind, here are eight simple tips to help you along as the MLB season heads into its second half.
1. Stay away from teams that have lost five or more straight games
"Baseball is all about streaks,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo. “Don`t bet a team because they are due, no matter how good they are supposed to be or how bad the opposition is.” The numbers back up Fargo’s advice. Of the 46 streaks of more than five games during the first half, 25 of them were losing streaks while only 21 of them were winning streaks.
2. Be very wary of heavy road chalk
This one is pretty self-explanatory, but as tempting as it might be to take Josh Beckett at –143 in Tampa Bay, don’t. Why? Because more often than not those heavily-priced away pitchers will and up costing you, much like Beckett did in dropping a 3-0 decision at the Trop two weeks ago. As a rule, if you see that price go above -130 it’s best to walk away unless you are 110 percent confident in your bet.
3. Avoid big underdogs
This one runs in the same vein as Rule #2.
Maybe you’re looking at the matchups one day and something catches your eye. Say, the Chicago Cubs at +240 against their cross-town rivals the White Sox. You think to yourself, "This isn’t really a road game and the Cubs have to be psyched to beat the Sox and Freddy Garcia. He and his 4.91 ERA." But think before you lay that money down. The books have been doing this for a long time and the Cubs are +240 for a reason. In fact, maybe it’s best to just put your money in your wallet and walk away.
“Underdogs are great but you can go broke trying to nail a +240 `dog,” says Covers Expert Shawn Torrey.
4. Shortlist your matchups
On any given day during the baseball season, there can be as many as 15 baseball games. So it makes sense to scratch out those games you have no idea about and focus on those where you can confidently pick a winner.
“For the most part that means eliminating those games with big faves, big underdogs or any pitchers you can’t count on for a consistent performance good or bad,” says Torrey.
5. Never bet on a pitcher who has allowed five or more runs in two straight starts
“Bad starts tend to come in threes, even to the best,” says Fargo.
The professional handicapper cites the first-half performances of San Diego Padres power pitcher Jake Peavy and Florida Marlins ace Dontrelle Willis. Both have pitched solid, but have also gone through significant losing streaks. Peavy has suffered skids of four and three games while Willis lost eight straight games through April and May.
6. Avoid betting pitchers coming off the DL
Chicago Cubs starter Mark Prior is the poster boy for this rule.
After starting the season on the 60-day DL, Prior returned to pitch some terrible baseball going 0-4 in his four starts and posting a 7.71 ERA.
Of course, Prior isn’t the only pitcher to struggle coming off the disabled list. Cincinnati hurler Eric Milton is 3-7 since returning from injury while Toronto’s A.J. Burnett has been rocked in two of the four outings he’s made since coming off the 60-day DL in late June. Even Chicago’s Jose Contreras lost three games after hurting his hamstring in May.
7. Bet on minor league pitchers after three or more starts of allowing four or more runs
Imagine the nerves and excitement of a young kid toiling in the minors for several seasons, then finally getting a shot at the big leagues.
Of course, it takes several starts to settle down and get into a groove. That’s when Fargo believes the opportunity arises to take these guys.
“Their price tag is likely down and they will get out of the funk and that fourth start is a good place for it to begin,” says the professional handicapper.
8. Schedule, schedule, schedule
Handicapping the schedule is important when betting most sports and baseball is no exception. Is the team in question finishing a lengthy road trip and simply looking forward to getting home? Maybe it has a big series against a division rival on tap and is looking ahead? "It`s no different than any other sport, you do have to consider the schedule,” says Torrey. “For example, in football a good team could come up short in a less-meaningful game that might be sandwiched between two important divisional contests, etc. Sometimes the same theories apply to baseball.”
Top MLB Betting Statistics
By Justin MacNeil
Sport’s betting isn’t easy.
You can’t always know who’s going to win a game and, as most bettors come to realize, your gut doesn’t always lead you in the right direction.
Statistics are a key tool to guide a bettor through the sportsbook and can lend validity to betting decisions. It’s always a good idea to carefully pour over stats before laying down any money.
Stats aren`t too complicated -- until baseball season starts. There are more statistics in baseball than any other sport, which can sometimes be overwhelming, especially to a rookie bettor.
One factor separating the veterans from the amateurs in baseball betting is the ability to find the stats that influence games and oddsmakers` lines. If you can understand where a handicapper is coming from when they set a line, you can better understand which teams have good betting value.
Here are the top five baseball statistics, in order of importance.
1. Starting Pitcher’s ERA.
Anybody even thinking about laying dollars down on a ballgame would have to be crazy to ignore the ERA of the starting pitchers. Bill Nevin, head of sports at BetUSA.com, says it`s the No. 1 factor that oddsmakers look at when setting each and every line on the board.
“There is a good reason why the line is set according to the starting pitchers," he says, "and that is because it is the dominant information you need to know to predict how the game will go.”
A pitcher’s wins or losses are important to look at but don’t always tell the whole story because things like bullpens, defense, the quality of oppostion and run support can all play into the final score.
The best gauge on a pitcher’s ability is his ERA (the average number of runs a pitcher allows per nine innings pitched)
The first thing you want to see is the pitcher’s overall ERA to get a feeling of how good he is. His home/away ERA shows you if he can perform at home or on the road. ERA in the last 10 games is important to look at to see if he’s on a hot or cold streak and a pitcher’s ERA against the particular team he’ll be playing against is also key when predicting winners.
2. Batting average
Pitchers are a big part of the equation, but the guys holding the bats can`t be overlooked. “I am far more interested in batting than fielding,” said Nevin. “I want to know their lifetime average, season average and average over the past five games. I also want to know how they perform against the likely pitchers, particularly if they are going to be up against a lefty.”
Team batting average is a good quick reference, but if you really want to educate yourself, you have to go through the rosters and check on each batter. Some batters know how to hit a particular pitcher, some guys will get hot at different times. The more you know, the better off you are.
A good example happened June 29 when the New York Mets, who have the third best pitching in the league and started ace Tom Glavine, lost 4-2 to Boston because of Boston’s strong batting lineup (5th in MLB.)
3. Recent form
You want to see how the team has been doing recently because there are so many factors that can change in baseball.
It’s important to note if a team is doing good on the road lately or have won their last few games because baseball is such a streaky sport.
(E.g.) Starting June 26, the Minnesota Twins won nine home games in a row. It would have been good to recognize this streak and bet on them during this time.
Once they hit the road they lost three of their next four, two of them to Kansas City.
4. Ambient Conditions
The most important thing to know about ambient conditions is their affect on over/under totals.
Knowing which way the wind is blowing at Wrigley field is a good way to figure out whether a game will go over or under.
If teams bat worse at night it makes it easier to pick the under when they meet up at night.
The conditions can also play a factor in wins and losses because certain teams play better than others under different conditions.
If Tampa Bay plays all season in warm weather they might have difficulty playing in Boston when September hits.
A team that bat’s well at night might meet up with a pitcher who has trouble under the lights, and so on.
5. Team Morale
Is the team gelling as a unit lately?
Local papers are a good place to find what kind of morale the team has.
If the fans aren’t happy or players are having disputes with coaches it can affect the morale and overall productivity of the team.
If a whole team is getting along great they have a better chance of putting together a powerful performance.
In a long baseball season a team’s morale can dwindle when they realize they wont make the playoffs.
The Philadelphia Phillies might have bad morale now that they’re twelve games out of first, even though they’re still second place in the NL East.
A team’s morale will change when they gain or lose momentum as well, said Nevin.
“All these are key factors which bettors often ignore."
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